Friday, February 28, 2014

Aqumin Volatility Newsletter 02/28/2014 $PLUG

Power UP

The market is making fresh all-time highs as the economic data is not too bad, and most of the early bad data is relegated to the nasty weather. The new Fed Chairman was nonplused by the data and saw no real reason to discontinue current Fed policies which means they are continuing to exit, helping the economy with monetary stimulus. For whatever reason, that gives the market a reason to rally as opposed to last spring when we sold off. The paces of the rallies are slowing a bit from last year’s 1-2% jumps.

A stock I follow is PLUG. The pace of the rally in this name is starting to subside as well except the jumps in here are on an order of magnitude higher. Note the realized volatility landscape here as PLUG was one of the few stocks up on the week (30%) but the realized volatility actually dropped recently. This means the stock is slowing down but still climbing.

2-28-2014 2-32-06 PM

The PLUG story is fuel cells that they now sell to WMT and FDX. Now that the company has technology they can sell, the upside potential can be pretty big. If the company can start breaking even, which is possible, they will be ahead of the green curve. That fact that WMT will write an 8 figure check is worth noting. I think the continued rise, albeit slower means the bull case is sticking.

With this type of name selling OTM puts to finance a long call is a decent trade 2-4 months out, or a ratio call spread (by 2 and sell 1) of similar duration. There is a fair amount of speculation here but I think the blue chip customers will beget others jumping on the Green Train.

OptionVision™ – data from ORATS

Read more from Andrew at Option Pit

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