Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Aqumin Volatility Newsletter 10/31/2016 $UVXY

It aint over until it’s over

Election shocks and surprises

The old saying “It ain’t over til it’s over” was never more true than last Friday.  A small change in the election game set volatility on fire again.  Generally what I like to see is standout volatility up or down for a ride in the volatility products.  Usually the vol products just decay but every once in a while there is a cause for an out of category volatility.  Even with the market clocking in single digit realized volatility UVXY found a way to jump off of the 3D map again.

UVXY is a levered product, but when the levered product gets way above all else it is noteworthy.  The dark red color in the AlphaVision® Landscape below, shows the lively 60 day realized volatility, with NUGT in the front of the group.  Height is what we want since that is the 10 day realized. UVXY is back out in front in the top 10% of 1 day relative moves which is how each decile of ETF’s is sorted.  The election will keep UVXY moving.

I expect UVXY and the volatility products to stay lively through the election with a binary move post- election.  There is now too much uncertainty to let volatility tank prior the Nov 8th a la The Brexit. I like long vol plays (call spreads in UVXY) in the shorter duration, but expiry after the Nov 8th, and a short vol play just farther out in the post-election run up.  The short vol can wait at least until the 7th.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Aqumin Volatility Newsletter 10-18-2016 $CHK

Someone CHK the Gas

There are finally some decent earnings to cheer about today.  Both GS and NFLX are up big on beating estimates.  For stocks that are at near all-time highs, great earnings are necessary to propel us higher.  Oil and Gas are doing better than ok this year to help Technology keep things moving.  The Energy group has been the big winner in 2016 with outstanding performance after a dismal start.  Energy lead by CHK has turned in the best relative performance so far this year (AlphaVision®Landscape group on the lower left) in the S&P 500.

CHK is a story from a famous ex-CEO to over production just in time for the crash in Nat Gas prices.  The $40 company is now a $6 company.  At some point they will be an asset play for someone with a very long view.  The Trend Reversal Landscape is showing a lot of red lately in the Energy group.  The poor 5 day relative performance is probably the group taking a pause after the big move to $50 in oil.  CHK clearly is not resting since 3 month performance (tallest building) is the best in the group and it is still rallying short term (green color).

On top of the recent performance there is a lot of call buying activity in CHK.  The near term volatility is bid sky high with the terms expiring prior to earnings.  Long ratio call spreads could work in here in the short term (buying 2 and selling 1).  Maybe the long winter for Nat Gas is over if the producers keep picking up a bid.

Read more from Andrew at Option Pit

Monday, October 10, 2016

Aqumin Volatility Newsletter 10-10-16 $WMT $TSN

WMT the high volatility leader

The market is having a hard time discounting the future.  By that I mean that the Fed and their multiple announcements and opinions by various Fed Governor’s have put a fork in market volatility.  The big sea change is that G7 Central Banks are holding so much paper that players are having a hard time looking forward.  Not that it ever was easy in the modern era, but now it seems different. As a volatility watcher I will ignore the squishy middle for now and look at some outliers.  WMT fits for this week.

We have the rolling volatility landscape that looks at 4 realized vol measurements at once.  60 day through 10 day realized vol is depicted as a sequence of buildings with “up buildins that are green showing sequential jumps in from 60 day to 30 day to 20 day to 10 day realized.  Usually that means some equity is in some kind of trouble short term.  In this case WMT got the double whammy of lower earnings expectations and a non-settlement with the DOJ.  Both of those sent the stock down to 6 month lows on gaping moves for WMT.

The AlphaVision® Vol Changes landscape shows color as the 10 and 20 day IV ratio so greener buildings mean more volatility now.  TSN is also high on the list for the S&P 500.  This reminds of December when WMT went through some initiatives that knocked down the price to the high 50s.  I don’t think it gets there but some put time spreads just OTM might work to sell the shorter term volatility.  WMT did get a little worse before it got better.

Read more from Andrew at Option Pit