Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Aqumin Volatility Newsletter 01/03/2011 - $CHK, $EDO, $FCX, $VALE

GoGo Metals

Well it was off to the races in 2012. Euro Debt? Who cares? US Treasury debt? That is a non-factor. Economic slowdown? Not with our Fed Chairman holding on to the wheel. Wall Street threw a party today but it was interesting to see really how stocks reacted. No doubt there was some money going back to work after 2011 closed its books. I will use an active AlphaVision™ view to break down the market action.

The view here was created by Aqumin’s VP of Solutions, Jason Javarone. Essentially it turns all 3000 names into a giant real time VWAP (value weighted average price) view. What this view conveys is momentum. If a stock is sticking up it is trading above its current, daily VWAP and if it is green it is up on the day. This way it is easy to tell where a stock is relative to its own movement at any point in time and relative to other stocks in the sector and broader market in general.

1-4-2012 9-39-47 AM

I chose this view because I thought the end of the day action looked interesting. The dark green stocks are up over 5% for the day. In the first view above I highlighted a gold stock with heavy activity, EGO (El Dorado Gold Corp.). Note how solidly bid all the Gold stocks were near the end of the day.

1-4-2012 9-40-45 AM

In the view above, I panned out to look at the broader market. Materials, Steel, Gold, Silver and Oil and Gas all finished the day very big. These are the stocks of global recovery and since most of them are down 50-60% from their highs in 2011 a little bottom fishing is going on. VALE, FCX and CHK all caught a pretty solid bid today, and with implied volatilities mostly lower these might be good candidates for call purchases in February and beyond. If we don’t actually implode via the EU, the market is already placing bets on what will lead equities back out on the first trading day of 2012. I think it is worth hopping a ride on this train.

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