Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Finding Opportunity in News Sentiment Lows

WAG feb 13th

Color: 1 Month Short Term News Sentiment Score – Green High, Red Low (RavenPack News Sentiment)

Sort: 1 Month Short Term News Sentiment Score – Lower Left High, Upper Right Low

Height: 1 Month Short Term News Sentiment Score – Tall is Low

These views show relative News Sentiment Score Highs (in green) and Lows (in red).  Green Scores in the lower left hand corner of each subgroup are the highest for that group of equities.  Tall Red Scores in the upper right hand side of each subgroup are the absolute lows for the sub group.  The color score is relative to all equities that register a News Sentiment Number.  Very Green is a High (Positive) Sentiment Score and Very Red is low (negative) News Sentiment Score (relative to all scoring equities).

What to look for: Red stocks in the upper right corner of each sub group to identify an underperforming issue on two levels:  1. News Sentiment and 2. price performance.  Both need to be moving down to establish lows in these numbers. The next step is to identify early upticks.  The example here is Walgreens (WAG) on February 13th, 2010 (See 2/13 Landscape).  In a relatively benign News Sentiment climate for the Retail-Drugs Sub Group, WAG stood out with very low 1 Month Moving Average (1 Mo MA) News Sentiment Scores and a stock price which essentially erased the rally of the last 6 months (See WAG Stock Price Chart).  By February 20th the 1 Mo MA News Sentiment Score had improved to -1.6, the first News Sentiment Uptick and first buy signal.  With the current News Sentiment Score -.18, WAG is almost back to Neutral News Sentiment and the stock has bounced of off its lows (See 3/9 Landscape).

To use this view, download AlphaVision Professional, then download and open the One Month News Score View from this link:  One Month News Score.aqv.  Your AlphaVision subscription must include RavenPack  data (call us for a free trial).

If you need assistance, just email support@aqumin.com or call 713-781-2121.

For more research on using News Sentiment Reversals for trading go to:  http://ravenpack.com/research/sentimentreversalspaperform.htm

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