Withering Volatility
Try as we might the volatility market cannot hold a real bid. Is there a volatility market you ask? Of course there is, it just depends on where you look. Today the VIX cash was up .63 to 13.92 as stocks sold off about .6 %. That is about normal as VIX will increase when the market falls. The question is there a demand for put options at this level?
If you look at a 3D snap of how volatility is moving the answer is mostly in the near term. We are getting some near term pops in IV per strike, but nothing on the longer end of the curve. Until I see the long end jump I am not going to worry too much.
Junky GDP numbers after the long winter are becoming a habit and this cycle was no exception. The second quarter will probably be better. With Greece the only real issue in the near term there is not much else to worry about. The Fed and ECB are still driving the boat and they have been known to crush the volatility.
It is not just the VIX, but how the IV moves that matters. Long term changes in IV are more important than short term changes. Using the short term pops in volatility to buy upside broken wing butterflies for credits has been very reliable this year. Keep the terms less than 2 weeks and create the short strike around new all-time highs in the SPX.
OptionVision™ – data from ORATS
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