Wednesday, March 30, 2011

$HIT Aqumin Opening Update 03/30/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

20110330

Focus: Japan & Electrical Components

HIT is up over 7% this morning (10:17 ET) on word that their main production plant will resume full operation next month. Current 2nd Month Implied Volatility is at a 16% premium to the average of the 2nd Month Implied Volatility of the last 12 month.

Use the Stock and Option Price Movement View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day. Use MidVol Change View to assess per strike volatility in the Option Landscape. The landscape was filtered to show all option classes that trade over 200 contracts per day.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

$ETP Aqumin Opening Update 03/29/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View ETP 03292011

Focus: Energy

ETP is down 2.5% this morning at 9:44am with just over a 2 Standard Deviation move. ETP is already trading twice its daily average volume.

Use the Abnormal Option Volume View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Friday, March 25, 2011

$ACN Aqumin Opening Update 03/25/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

OPENING VIEW ACN 03252011

Focus: Computers

ACN is up 6% this morning on upbeat earnings forecasts at 10:44am. ACN is trading at an 11% premium to it’s 1 year average 60 Day Implied volatility.

Use the Above Average Option Volatility (long term) View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

$IMAX Aqumin Opening Update 03/24/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View IMAX 03242011

Focus: Electronics

IMAX is up 12.3% this morning with almost all of the market up at 11:00 am. IMAX is trading at a 20% discount to the it’s 1 year average 60 Day Implied volatility.

Use the Above Average Option Volatility (long term) View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

A meltdown I can live with….

From my last post we were staring down the barrel of a potentially shattering event in Japan. What I took from that was the serious rally in Treasuries was going to be short lived if (a big if but I thought) the events in Japan were blown out of proportion. The media helped us out there and thankfully things did not get worse then they already were. So the current meltdown I can live with is in implied volatility. Let’s take a look at how that spreads out over an AlphaVision Landscape.

The view I chose here is 1 Week Change in Stock and Option Implied Volatility pricing. Height is the change in 1 Week 30 Day Implied Volatility. Note you do not see many buildings sticking up. By and large there was a collapse in this measure. The next landscape data point (color) is change in price. Any name in red sticking up has higher implied volatility and lower prices than last week.

3-23-2011 11-00-11 AM

At Aqumin we call this a ‘parking lot’ because it is so one sided. When a name like Centerpoint Energy Inc (CNP) sticks out I take notice. The implied volatility held up and the stock is up, which is pretty rare in the 3000+ optionable names you see in the landscape. Maybe the little rally in CNP has some legs…

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

$WAG Aqumin Midday Update 03/22/2011

This midday view helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down and might present opportunities for the next day’s open.

Midday View WAG 03222011

Focus: Earning Reported Today

WAG is down 6.5 % for the day on relatively disappointing same store sales. WAG April Implied Volatility is trading 6 pts. over 30 Day Historical Volatility after the Earning Implied Volatility decrease.

Use the 2nd Month IV and Stock Price up or down on the day View in AV Pro to identify stocks with similar implied volatility moves.

Monday, March 21, 2011

$GBX Aqumin Opening Update 03/21/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View GBX 03212011

Focus: Trucking and Leasing

GBX is up 5.3% this morning with almost all of the market up at 10:15 am. GBX made a 52 week high this morning with Trucking and Leasing leading the market in Average Underlying Price Change.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Friday, March 18, 2011

$CIGX Aqumin Midday Update 03/18/2011

 

This midday view helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down and might present opportunities for the next day’s open.

Midday View CIGX 03182011

Focus: Agriculture

CIGX is UP 12 % for the day on future growth prospects. CIGX is trading at 6 month highs in 30 Day Implied Volatility. 10 Day Historical Volatility is trading a 38 points above 30 Day Historical Volatility.

Use the Dead Money View in AV Pro to identify stocks with similar HV pricing.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

$NRP Aqumin Opening Update 03/17/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

opening view NRP 03172011

Focus: Coal

NRP is down 6.1% this morning with almost all of the market up at 9:59 am. NRP is the only coal stock down this morning.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

$BTU Aqumin Opening Update 03/16/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View BTU 03162011

Focus: Energy

BTU is up 4.1% this morning with almost all of the market down at 9:59 am. Many of the non-Oil Energy stocks are doing very well as a result of the Japan Tsunami Disaster.

Use the Default EQUITY View in the View Library in AV for Bloomberg to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

What it takes to bid up a Treasury Bond these days…

Honestly, the news coming out of Japan feels more like a James
Bond subplot. Except we don’t have Mr. Bond, we have Tokyo Electric Power Co. (who by the end of this might be as famous as Mr. Bond if they can fix this mess) as the potential heroes and the heroic work is done in maddening hyperbole by CNN instead of behind the scenes. Another reason for the market to selloff and we have had some great reasons lately. Since they were selling everything, it pays to look at what they were buying.

Using Aqumin’s AlphaVision landscape draws me to where the action is. Normally when I look for topics for TheStreet.com’s syndicated column (18 in a row again for winners) I like to start with a view in the morning to set up what is happening. The view below is in AV Pro and it simply shows change in price and change in Implied Volatility in the 2nd Expiration Month. A big, green building in the corner shows me that the stock was up today, along with the implied volatility.

3-15-2011 4-48-54 PM

For Direxion Daily 30-Yr Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) today was its big day to shine with a gap you don’t see very often. A flight to quality always accompanies destabilizing world events and a James Bond rescue on camera certainly qualifies. There has been a slow rally in Treasuries for the week or so and I can’t help but think this is the last gasp for them. It takes the hint of disaster for the T-Bond to pop and there are only so many of those to go around. Implied Volatility was up just a bit in the TMF to bring the midterm Implied Volatilities in line with recent movement (see the chart in the lower right hand corner) but Implied Volatility is still trading near lows for the past 6 months. Nowhere near a panic. Maybe this is the last gasp for Treasuries for Q1. Let’s see how it ends up.

$TMF Aqumin Opening Update 03/15/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View TMF 03152011

Focus: Debt Funds

TMF is up 3.6% this morning with almost all of the market down at 10:42 am. The leveraged Treasury fund is leading all Debt Funds this morning. The At the Money Implied Volatility for the 2nd month is UP 2.6 pts. April Implied Volatility is trading at a slight discount to the 2 week Historical Volatility for the TMF.

Use the 2nd Month IV and Stock Price up or down on the day View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Monday, March 14, 2011

$CIGX Aqumin Midday Update 03/14/2011

 

This midday view helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down and might present opportunities for the next day’s open.

Midday View CIGX 11142011

Focus: Agriculture

CIGX is UP 18 % for the day on positive patent news and future growth prospects. CIGX is trading at 2.5x the trailing one year lows in 30 Day Implied Volatility. 30 Day Historical Volatility is at a 3 month high.

Use the Cheap Implied Volatility 30 Day View in AV Pro to identify stocks with similar volatility pricing.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

$GMCR Aqumin Opening Update 03/10/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Morning View GMCR 03102011

Focus: Beverages

GMCR is up 30% this morning with almost all of the market down at 9:42 am. The At the Money Implied Volatility for the 2nd month is down slightly but the OTM puts have picked up between 3-5 points.  GMCR now has a P/E of 74.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

When expectation turns into sad reality…what to do?

Sorry for not posting the Aqumin blog last week, I actually took a couple of days off….but there is plenty to notice today.

In the stock market there is nothing sadder than a fall from grace. Names climb higher (P/E ratios too) in the hopes of ever expanding earnings. Sometimes the companies just can’t maintain that level of activity. Shares of Finisar Corp (FNSR) issued diminished expectations for the next quarter and down went the stock.

Picking up this activity in Aqumin’s AlphaVision Landscape in the Abnormal Option Volume View is easy. The FNSR move is 1409% of 1 standard deviation (the tall building) for the name at the closing implied volatility. It is needless to say that this was not priced in to the options and is a good reminder of what can happen on any earnings announcement. The green color indicates volume at least 2 times Average Daily Volume. The Optical Networking area of the Telecom subsector was really on fire today with most of the names moving at least 250% of 1 standard deviation and implied volatility in April up 4 or 5 points depending on the name.

3-9-2011 2-45-20 PM

For JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Oclaro Inc. (OCLR) and Oplink Communications (OPLK) earnings don’t come until after the April cycle (check for yourself). Obviously the FNSR announcement has put a damper on the potential continuation of growing earnings in the group. One thing about a pop in implied volatility is that it works for calls and puts. The out of the money calls are expanding with the rise in Implied Volatility as liquidity providers adjust to all the new downside protection they have to sell. These giant moves don’t happen every day and getting back to the lofty levels previously held will be fighting gravity. Maybe letting a few of the upside calls go in a JDSU is not such a bad idea. At least the market is paying you more for them today.

$FNSR $OPLK $JDSU Aqumin Opening Update 03/09/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View FNSR 03092011

Focus: Telecom

FNSR is down 32% this morning with other Telecoms very weak as of 10:43 ET. The At the Money Implied Volatility for the 2nd month is up 3.5 pts. with rising implied volatility in the Telecom Subsector.

Use the 2nd Month IV and Stock Price up or down on the day View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

$RSH Aqumin Midday Update 03/08/2011

 

This midday view helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down and might present opportunities for the next day’s open.

midday view RSH 03082011

Focus: Retail

RSH is UP 5.2 % for the day on takeover rumors in a Subsector that is the performing in the middle of the market. RSH has a 3.5 pt. change in 2nd month At the Money Implied Volatility. Of note, RSH Implied Volatility in Apr is just 4pts over the trailing 14 Day Historical Volatility.

Use the 14 Day MidVol Outlook View in the option landscape and adjust the height to opt_TotalComposite Volume to identify other stocks exhibiting similar patterns in the View Library in AV Pro.

$DHI Aqumin Opening Update 03/08/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down and might present early opportunities.

opening view DHI 03082011

Focus: Home Builders

DHI is up 3.7% today and the Homebuilders lead the market on average as of 10:43 ET. The At the Money Implied Volatility is trading 9% over the 14 Day Historical Volatility. Airlines are the #2 Subsector.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Monday, March 7, 2011

$USMO Aqumin Opening Update 03/07/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

opening view USMO 03072011

Focus: Telecom Services

USMO was down 9.8% last week on news of acquiring another company. UMSO is thinly traded and there are not traded options on this name. Telecom Services was the lowest performing GICS Sector last week on average.

Use the 1 Week Total Return View in the View Library in AV for Bloomberg to follow the morning activity and throughout the day.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

$ZN Aqumin Opening Update 03/02/2011

 

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View ZN 03022011

Focus: Oil and Gas

ZN is up 14.8% today (1:28 ET) on a good earnings report with the Mining Stocks the #2 Subsector currently. ZN is thinly traded and Implied Volatility is in the middle of the range for this name. Oil and Gas has moved to the middle of performers today.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day. Use the 60 Day MidVol Outlook View to assess per strike volatility in the Option Landscape. The landscape was filtered to show all option classes that trade over 200 contracts per day.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

$NVAX Aqumin Opening Update 03/01/2011

This view just after the open helps identify stocks that are gapping up or down early and might present early opportunities.

Opening View 20110301

Focus: Biotechnology

NVAX is up over 30% this morning (9:34 AM ET) on news of a government vaccine contract. The Biotechnology stocks are doing moderately better than the broader market this morning, mostly on the strength of NVAX. NVAX 2ND Month At the Money Implied Volatility is up over 20 points over the past week.

Use the Opening View in the View Library in AV Pro to follow the morning activity and throughout the day. Use the MidVol Change View to assess per strike volatility in the Option Landscape. The landscape was filtered to show all option classes that trade over 200 contracts per day.